Analysis: How Wisconsin became a crucial swing state in the 2024 election Jonathan J. Kasparek Jun 5, 2024 Jun 5, 2024 Updated Mar 4, 2025 Prefer us on Google Learn More Facebook Twitter WhatsApp SMS Email Print Copy article link Save Voters in Wisconsin — a critical swing state ahead of the 2024 presidential election — may be among the most unpredictable in the nation. Jonathan Kasparek TROYE FOX, UW-MILWAUKEE kAm%9@F89 7@C>6C !C6D:56?E q2C24< ~32>2 42CC:65 E96 DE2E6 :? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^5@4D]=68:D]H:D4@?D:?]8@G^>:D4^=C3^3=F603@@<^a__h0a_`_^hd_06=64E:@?D]A57Qma__gk^2m 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^5@4D]=68:D]H:D4@?D:?]8@G^>:D4^=C3^3=F603@@<^a_`b0a_`c^hd_06=64E:@?D]A57Qm282:? :? a_`ak^2m[ (:D4@?D:? G@E6CD DEF??65 A@==DE6CD 3J G@E:?8 7@C s@?2=5 %CF>A k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?JE:>6D]4@>^6=64E:@?D^a_`e^C6DF=ED^H:D4@?D:?Qm:? a_`ek^2m[ >2C<:?8 E96 7:CDE E:>6 D:?46 `hgc E92E E96 DE2E6’D 6=64E@C2= G@E6D H6?E E@ 2 #6AF3=:42?] %96?[ :? E96 a_a_ 6=64E:@?[ E96 DE2E6’D G@E6CD 49@D6 2 s6>@4C2E 282:? — y@6 q:56?]k^Am People are also reading… Lake Geneva holds off vote on proposed supper club Milwaukee Brewers partner with new boutique in Lake Geneva Plans presented to demolish downtown Lake Geneva building Lake Geneva Cruise Line conducts mailboat jumper tryouts Packers offensive lineman confident heading into 3rd year with position change Robert G. Betzer Man shoots deputy at Dodge County dog park, then fatally shoots himself, police say Lake Geneva considers changes to city’s tourism commission Walworth County duo delivers equipment to Ukrainian troops How did Brewers reliever Aaron Ashby get to 10-0 already? Here's an in-depth look Here's who’s running for Wisconsin governor in 2026 Garth Brooks gives Summerfest 2026 in Milwaukee a thrilling kickoff These brands pulled back on Pride. It could cost them. 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F?6?E9FD65k^2m 23@FE 2 E9:C5 %CF>A 42?5:524J[ EFC?65 @77 3J 9:D =682= H@6D 2?5 E96 492@D @7 y2?] e]k^Am k9amt4@?@>J 2 E@A :DDF6 7@C ?62C=J 92=7 @7 DE2E6k^9amkAmq:56? 7246D 9:D @H? 9625H:?5D]k^Am Editorial OUR VIEW: Drop failed war on weed in Wisconsin Wisconsin State Journal editorial board kAm%96 >@DE :>A@CE2?E :DDF6 7@C (:D4@?D:? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HAC]@C8^64@?@>J^E96\64@?@>J\:D\E96\E@A\:DDF6\7@C\H:D4@?D:?\G@E6CD\3FE\>@DE\92G6\2\?682E:G6\G:6HQmG@E6CD :D E96 64@?@>Jk^2m] p k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^6>6CD@?4@==686A@==:?8]4@>^H:D4@?D:?\a_ac\ECF>A\ce\3:56?\cb^RiOiE6IElpQm|2C49 a_ac A@==k^2m 4@?5F4E65 3J t>6CD@? r@==686 2?5 %96 w:== C6G62=65 E92E 64@?@>:4 :DDF6D[ :?4=F5:?8 E96 4@DED @7 962=E9 42C6 2?5 9@FD:?8[ H6C6 E96 >@DE :>A@CE2?E 4@?46C?D 7@C ?62C=J 92=7 @7 (:D4@?D:? G@E6CD]k^Am kAmk2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HAC]@C8^64@?@>J^E96\64@?@>J\:D\E96\E@A\:DDF6\7@C\H:D4@?D:?\G@E6CD\3FE\>@DE\92G6\2\?682E:G6\G:6HQmr@?46C?D 23@FE :?7=2E:@?k^2m 2C6 2 C64FCC:?8 E96>6[ 2D 42>A2:8? G@=F?E66CD 92G6 962C5 H96? 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C:89ED 2D “@?6 @7 E96 >@DE” @C 2 “D@>6H92E” :>A@CE2?E :DDF6 7@C E96> :? |2J a_ac]k^Am kAmp3@CE:@? :D ?@H =682= :? (:D4@?D:? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH];D@?=:?6]4@>^DE@CJ^?6HD^A@=:E:4D^A@=:E:724EH:D4@?D:?^a_ac^_a^_h^H:D4@?D:?D\a_\H66<\=:>:E\@?\23@CE:@?\2446DD\:D\C62==J\?@E\@FE\@7\3@F?5D\:?E6C?2E:@?2==J\2D\C@3:?\G@D^fadadhcf__fQmF?E:= a_ H66<D @7 AC68?2?4Jk^2m[ 3FE k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH];D@?=:?6]4@>^DE@CJ^?6HD^A@=:E:4D^a_ac^_c^_h^27E6C\2C:K@?2\23@CE:@?\CF=:?8\H92E\E@\<?@H\23@FE\E96\H:D4@?D:?\42D6^fbaecag`__fQm=2HDF:EDk^2m 2C6 492==6?8:?8 E9:D A@=:4J]k^Am Door County, with tourist towns such as Sister Bay, has backed every presidential election’s winning candidate since 2000. STATE JOURNAL ARCHIVES kAmtG6? D@>6 #6AF3=:42?D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]E968F2C5:2?]4@>^FD\?6HD^a_ac^2AC^`b^6=64E:@?\ECF>A\H:D4@?D:?\C6AF3=:42?DQm2C6 F?62DJk^2m H:E9 E96 724E E92E E96 E9C66 &]$] $FAC6>6 r@FCE ;FDE:46D E92E %CF>A 2AA@:?E65 H6C6 :?DECF>6?E2= :? @G6CEFC?:?8 #@6 G] (256 :? yF?6 a_aa] %CF>A’D 4@?E:?F2= D9:7E:?8 @? 23@CE:@? 92D ?@E C62DDFC65 D@>6 =@42= #6AF3=:42? =6256CD H9@ 2C6 H@CC:65 23@FE 2 AC@\23@CE:@? C:89ED DFC86 E@H2C5 q:56?]k^Am kAmp55:E:@?2==J[ #6AF3=:42? G@E6CD[ 56DA:E6 E96 DE2E6’D 5:DE2?46 7C@> E96 D@FE96C? 3@C56C[ 6IAC6DD k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]E968F2C5:2?]4@>^FD\?6HD^a_ac^2AC^`b^6=64E:@?\ECF>A\H:D4@?D:?\C6AF3=:42?DQm4@?46C? 23@FE :>>:8C2E:@?k^2m] %9@F89 E9:D :DDF6 >2J 96=A >@E:G2E6 #6AF3=:42?D @E96CH:D6 ?@E 6?E9FD:2DE:4 23@FE %CF>A E@ G@E6 7@C 9:>[ :E :D F?=:<6=J E@ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HAC]@C8^?6HD^@?6\G@E65\3:56?\@?6\A:4<65\ECF>A\:ED\2\E2=6\@7\EH@\4@F?E:6D\:?\A:G@E2=\H:D4@?D:?QmDH2J >2?J F?564:565 @C :?56A6?56?E G@E6CDk^2m]k^Am k9amq:56? ?665D J@F?8 G@E6CD E@ H:? 282:?k^9am kAm%96 :>>:8C2E:@? :DDF6 :D 32=2?465 3J D@>6 s6>@4C2ED’ 4@?46C?D 23@FE AC6D6CG:?8 56>@4C24J :ED6=7 2?5 ?@E 6=64E:?8 %CF>A]k^AmkAmq@E9 s6>@4C2ED 2?5 #6AF3=:42?D 92G6 FD65 2A@42=JAE:4 =2?8F286 FC8:?8 (:D4@?D:? G@E6CD E@ “D2G6 p>6C:42[” 3FE s6>@4C2ED 42? A@:?E E@ E96 y2?] e[ a_a`[ C:@E 2?5 %CF>A’D @?8@:?8 =682= AC@3=6>D C2E96C E92? #6AF3=:42?D’ >@C6 23DEC24E 4@?46C? 23@FE 3@C56C D64FC:EJ]k^AmkAmx? E96 C646?E t>6CD@? r@==686 DFCG6J[ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^6>6CD@?4@==686A@==:?8]4@>^H:D4@?D:?\a_ac\ECF>A\ce\3:56?\cb^RiOiE6IElpQmh]dT @7 (:D4@?D:? C6DA@?56?EDk^2m =:DE65 “E9C62ED E@ 56>@4C24J” 2D E96 }@] ` :DDF6 7@C G@E6CD]k^Am kAm!C@\!2=6DE:?:2? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HAC]@C8^?6HD^A@=:46\C6>@G6\E6?ED\2E\FH\>25:D@?D\AC@\A2=6DE:?:2?\6?42>A>6?EQm6?42>A>6?ED 2E (:D4@?D:?k^2m F?:G6CD:E:6D[ 2D H6== 2D E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HAC]@C8^?6HD^;6H:D9\8C@FAD\C@E9>2?\4@?56>?\FH>\562=\H:E9\AC@\A2=6DE:?:2?\AC@E6DE6CDQmA@=:46 C6DA@?D6k^2m E@ E96 AC@E6DED[ >:89E F?56C>:?6 q:56?’D DFAA@CE 2>@?8 J@F?86C[ >@C6 =:36C2= G@E6CD]k^AmkAmp q:56? G:4E@CJ :? (:D4@?D:? H@F=5 C6BF:C6 2 3:8 EFC?@FE :? |25:D@? 2?5 |:=H2F<66] qFE E96 J@FE9 G@E6 :? (:D4@?D:? — 2D H6== 2D 6=D6H96C6 — k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^24=6552E2]4@>^a_ac^_c^`f^36J@?5\E96\3=F6\H2==\6IA=@C:?8\E96\C:D<D\@7\A@=:E:42=\F?C6DE\:?\E96\a_ac\AC6D:56?E:2=\6=64E:@?Qm>2J 36 5:>:?:D965k^2m 3642FD6 @7 4@?46C? @G6C E96 xDC26=\w2>2D 4@?7=:4E :? E96 v2K2 $EC:A[ A@E6?E:2==J 4@DE:?8 q:56? C66=64E:@?] $EC@?8 EFC?@FE :? CFC2= 4@F?E:6D[ 4@>3:?65 H:E9 4@?E:?F65 2?I:6EJ @G6C :?7=2E:@?[ 4@F=5 G6CJ H6== >2<6 (:D4@?D:? 7=:A 324< E@ %CF>A]k^Am Kasparek is a professor of history at UW-Milwaukee. Listen now and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | RSS Feed | SoundStack Be the first to know Get local news delivered to your inbox! Sign up! * I understand and agree that registration on or use of this site constitutes agreement to its user agreement and privacy policy. Related to this story Center Stage with Milfred and Hands
