Wisconsin at Minnesota football: 3 keys to victory, why the Badgers D-line must shine and predictions

When the Badgers have the ball

Two key factors have helped the Badgers offense get on track the second half of the season, score 31.9 points per game and win seven consecutive games: The emergence of freshman running back Braelon Allen and a lack of costly turnovers.

1. D-line needs best game: The improvement of the Badgers’ defensive line has been one of the most important factors to the defense being the FBS’ best against the run. That unit needs to have its best game of the season against the Gophers and contain the rushing attack to give the defense added flexibility against Minnesota’s quick passing game.

Minnesota is down a handful of tailbacks and relying on redshirt freshman Ky Thomas and true freshman Mar’Kiese Irving. UW couldn’t contain Mo Ibrahim on the ground last season, but the Badgers defensive line dominated the front in 2019 to make Minnesota one-dimensional. Do that again and UW is going to Indianapolis to play for the Big Ten title.

1. Tackle Braelon Allen: This sounds obvious, but the seven consecutive teams that have allowed Allen to rush for more than 100 yards all had trouble bringing down the Badgers’ star freshman tailback. Allen is clearly not 100%, as he’s been slow to get up after tackles and dealing with some lower-body injuries as his role has increased, but the Gophers must wrap up after contact and attack him low.

Watch both of Allen’s long touchdown runs last week and you’ll defenders bounce off him because they don’t follow their initial contact by holding onto Allen, and others trying to bring him down around his shoulders, which his tremendous upper-body strength prevents. PFF credits Allen with 706 yards after contact and 36 missed tackles forced this season.

Series: UW leads 62-60-8

First meeting: UW lost 63-0 in Minneapolis

Colten's prediction

This game has the makings of a grind-it-out, defensive battle between two of the FBS’ best defensive units. After giving up a season high in yards last week, expect UW’s defense to play well in a game that’s right up its alley in terms of physicality. UW seems to have more firepower offensively. Braelon Allen is a special kind of runner that the Gophers haven’t seen this season, and Graham Mertz has been able to keep drives alive in the passing game. UW marches on to Indy.