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Who has the edge when No. 25 Wisconsin visits No. 19 Iowa?
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Who has the edge when No. 25 Wisconsin visits No. 19 Iowa?

  • COLTEN BARTHOLOMEW
  • Dec 12, 2020
  • Dec 12, 2020 Updated Dec 25, 2020

Coming off two losses, the University of Wisconsin football team (2-2) is looking to bounce back this week against the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa (5-2) has won five straight games heading into this battle for the Heartland Trophy, but UW has won four consecutive games in this series. 

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WHEN THE BADGERS HAVE THE BALL

Mertz edge
STEVE APPS, STATE JOURNAL

Scoring just 13 points in their past two outings, the Badgers are on their worst two-game scoring stretch since 1991. Multiple factors play into the offense’s nosedive since a blowout win at Michigan last month. Injuries to receivers Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor left an already thin-on-talent receiver group without its top two players, and redshirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz (above) hasn’t yet found a rhythm with any of their reserves. Seven turnovers in the past two games also have stymied any momentum the offense has put together.

Freshman receiver Chimere Dike, who scored a touchdown against Northwestern, had three catches for 40 yards against Indiana. Junior tight end Jake Ferguson has been Mertz’s favorite target — he leads the Badgers with 23 catches, 235 receiving yards and four touchdowns — but the Hoosiers took him away in key spots by using double teams and brackets, especially in the red zone. Expect the Hawkeyes, who allow just 17 points per game, to do the same against Ferguson, trying to force the issue and make the Badgers prove other receiving threats can make big plays.

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WHEN THE HAWKEYES HAVE THE BALL

petras photo 12-11 edge

Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras passes during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Illinois Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020, in Champaign , Ill. Iowa won 35-21. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

CHARLES REX ARBOGAST, ASSOCIATED PRESS

Sophomore quarterback Spencer Petras (above) shook off a shaky start to his first year as a starter and has settled into the role. Petras and the Hawkeyes have won five consecutive games and he just posted his best game of the year in a comeback win against Illinois last week. Petras had 220 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions to top the Illini on the road.

Petras has a big arm and can challenge defenses vertically, but he’s improved throughout the year at reigning in his throwing power and being more accurate. He’s also done well distributing the ball evenly between his skill players — seven Hawkeyes have at least 11 catches this season, led by tight end Sam LaPorta (26 catches, 260 yards). As usual, the Hawkeyes have a solid rushing attack, with sophomore tailback Tyler Goodson leading the charge. Goodson ranks third in the conference with 93.7 rushing yards per game and Iowa is tied for the conference lead with 17 rushing touchdowns.

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SPECIAL TEAMS

Keith Duncan - Iowa

FILE - In this Sept. 14, 2019, file photo, Iowa kicker Keith Duncan (3) kicks a field goal during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa State, in Ames, Iowa. Duncan was selected to The Associated Press All-America team, Monday, Dec. 16, 2019. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

CHARLIE NEIBERGALL, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES

Iowa kicker Keith Duncan (above) is one of the best specialists in the nation, but he’s having his worst season as a collegian this year. He’s 12 of 16 on field goals (75%), the lowest accuracy rate of his career, but three of his misses are from 50 or more yards. He’s 8 of 10 in his past three games. 

Tory Taylor has been stellar as the Hawkeyes’ punter, leading the conference with a net average of 43.7 yards per punt, and opponents have tried to return just one of his kicks. Punt returner Charlie Jones is second in the conference at 11.7 yards per return.

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COACHING

Chryst edge 12-11
STEVE APPS, STATE JOURNAL

Paul Chryst (above) and the Badgers’ coaching staff have to get the offense kick-started after two bad weeks.

Whether it’s feeding a productive player such as Berger more or simply getting the full complement of receiving options back in the lineup, UW needs to find a way to score this week against a good defense. Jim Leonhard’s defense has held up its end of the bargain, allowing a combined 31 points in back-to-back losses despite seven offensive turnovers and the short fields those situations created.

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INTANGIBLES

Heartland Trophy photo 2019

MADISON, WI - NOVEMBER 09: Wisconsin Badgers inside linebacker Chris Orr (54) and Wisconsin Badgers outside linebacker Zack Baun (56) celebrates with the heartland trophy durning a college football game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers on November 9th, 2019, at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

DAN SANGER, ICON SPORTSWIRE

At the start of the year, it was predicted this matchup would determine the winner of the Big Ten West Division.

But this year’s winner of the Heartland Trophy (above) will have to settle for second place after Northwestern clinched the division title last week. Where teams finish in their division races determines who they play in Big Ten Champions Week, which is slated to feature crossover games between the divisions, though that could change.

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STATE JOURNAL'S PICK

stuffed 2-pt
STEVE APPS, STATE JOURNAL

UW’s offense can’t be stagnant for three games in a row, right? Even against a solid defense such as Iowa’s, UW will find some kind of answer to get the ball moving and, more importantly, finish drives with points. UW’s defense will harass Petras into a turnover or two and give the offense extra chances.

BADGERS 20, HAWKEYES 17

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