Wisconsin vs. Nebraska football: 3 keys to victory, why Nebraska should gamble and predictions

When the Badgers have the ball

Freshman running back Braelon Allen showed he was ready for lead-back responsibilities last week with his 173-yard, three-touchdown performance against Northwestern. The Wildcats’ defense was one of the worst in the country at stopping the run, but Allen has a stiffer test coming against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank 39th in the FBS and seventh in the Big Ten allowing 132.5 yards rushing per game.

1. Continue spreading around the ball: Graham Mertz completed passes to nine receivers last week against Northwestern, a welcomed sign of his improvement and the passing game’s step forward in recent weeks. Mertz said this week that he’s seen receivers win routes quicker and be “more violent” in their route running. That could be helpful against a Cornhuskers passing defense that was shredded two weeks ago against Ohio State and lost its best player, linebacker JoJo Domann, after he had surgery on his left hand.

2. Contain Martinez’s rushing: Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez is a true dual-threat player and he’s 273 yards away from the program’s record for total offense. UW will have to do its best to keep him from scrambling and extending plays, something it struggled to do in Lincoln in 2019. UW needs to make Martinez one-dimensional, whether it’s using outside linebackers Nick Herbig and Noah Burks as contain players more than pass-rushers or an inside linebacker/safety as a spy.

1. Throw caution to the wind: The Cornhuskers are in what could be an advantageous position if they choose to approach it that way at Camp Randall. Nebraska has nothing to lose against a Badgers team with some big goals in front of it. After firing almost his entire offensive staff last week, Scott Frost and the Cornhuskers should go for broke and try trick plays and anything else they can cook up to score on UW’s defense. One could argue that Nebraska is playing for pride and its culture under Frost, but what kind of culture does it set to continue doing things that haven’t worked throughout a 3-7 season?

2. Overload blitzes: Nebraska has blitzed on just more than 30% of opponents’ drop backs this season, and it uses defensive line stunts often in its attempts to get after quarterbacks. UW’s offensive line has done a much better job keeping quarterback Graham Mertz clean in the pocket, not allowing a sack of Mertz in the past three weeks. Nebraska should test the offensive line's and running backs’ blocking and Mertz’s timing and accuracy with overload blitzes, bringing more defenders to a gap than UW can block.

Series: UW leads 10-4

First meeting: UW won 18-0

Colten's prediction

There’s too much happening within the Nebraska program between coach firings and losing key players to expect the Cornhuskers to be sharp Saturday. The UW defense is having conversations about being one of the best in program history and has been able to lock in against a variety of offenses this season. Nebraska’s varied scheme could cause some problems, but it’s hard to imagine the Badgers not finding solutions quickly. As long as Braelon Allen stays healthy and effective at tailback, the Badgers have an identity to work off of and the offense can create balance against a Nebraska defense that’s been beaten up by injuries.