Analysis: Predicting the best players, games and surprises in Big Ten football this season
JIM POLZIN
Updated
From the top five Heisman Trophy candidates to the top five Big Ten showdowns and everything in between, Lee Sports Wisconsin columnist Jim Polzin has football fans covered with a look at all the players, teams, coaches and matchups to watch across the conference this season.
Top five Heisman Trophy candidates
JAY LaPRETE, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
1. Michael Penix Jr. (above), QB, Indiana: Penix is electric when he’s healthy. Each of his three seasons at Indiana have ended with him on the sideline due to injuries. But he’s 10-2 as a starter and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of those games.
2. C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State: There are reasons Stroud shouldn’t be on this list, starting with the fact that he hasn’t attempted a pass at the college level and was in a three-player battle to replace NFL first-rounder Justin Fields. But the oddsmakers believe in Stroud: BetOnline has his odds to win the Heisman at 10/1, the highest Big Ten player on that list and tied for third overall.
1. Michael Penix Jr. (above), Indiana: While Penix’s completion percentage dipped to 56.4 last season, he still finished with 1,645 yards passing with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions before a torn ACL ended his season after six games.
2. Sean Clifford, Penn State: Clifford, who has 20 career starts under his belt, threw for 1,883 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 335 yards and five scores last season.
1. Mohamed Ibrahim (above), Minnesota: Ibrahim led the Big Ten with 15 touchdowns and 153.7 yards rushing per game as a junior, needing only seven games to go over the 1,000-yard mark.
1. Chris Olave (above), Ohio State: Olave shocked a lot of people when he decided to return to the Buckeyes rather than enter the NFL draft. Olave tied a program record with 7.1 receptions per game, finishing with 50 for 729 yards and seven scores.
2. David Bell, Purdue: Bell has gone over the 100-yard mark in 10 of his 18 career games with the Boilermakers. He led the Big Ten with 104.2 yards receiving per game as a sophomore last season, finishing with 53 catches for 625 yards and eight touchdowns.
1. Jake Ferguson (above), UW: Ferguson has been steady during his first three seasons playing for the Badgers, amassing 99 catches for 1,168 yards and 10 touchdowns. The former Madison Memorial standout believes he has one more big step to take before his time at UW is over.
2. Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State: Nine of Ruckert’s 28 career catches have resulted in touchdowns.
1. Thayer Munford (above), Ohio State: Munford was a first-team All-Big Ten selection at left tackle last season but may move to left guard this season so the Buckeyes can get their five best linemen on the field.
2. Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa: The Hawkeyes’ only returning starter on the line is a great one. Linderbaum was one of three finalists for the Rimington Trophy as a sophomore last season.
1. Aidan Hutchinson (above), DE, Michigan: Hutchinson’s decision to return for his senior season was huge for the Wolverines, who will benefit from his leadership and playmaking ability.
2. George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue: After being named a Freshman All-American in 2019, Karlaftis’ playing time was limited last season due to injury and COVID-19. The five-star recruit who decided to stay home and play for the Boilermakers is projected as a first-round pick in 2022.
1. Micah McFadden, Indiana: McFadden recorded six sacks and led the Hoosiers in tackles for the second consecutive season as a sophomore.
2. Olakunle Fatukasi, Rutgers: Fatukasi turned down a chance at the NFL to return for his senior campaign in Piscataway after leading the Big Ten with 101 tackles last season.
1. Sevyn Banks (above), CB, Ohio State: Banks, poised to be the next great lockdown cornerback for the Buckeyes, led the team with seven PBUs last season.
2. Brandon Joseph, S, Northwestern: Joseph earned first-team All-America honors as a redshirt freshman after finishing with six interceptions, tied for the most in the nation. Two of those picks came in a win over UW.
1. Aron Cruickshank, KR, Rutgers: Cruickshank has returned four kickoffs for touchdowns over the past two seasons: Two at UW in 2019 and two at Rutgers, where he transferred to be closer to his home in New York.
2. Connor Culp, K, Nebraska: Culp went 13 of 15 on field goals with a long of 49 yards last season after joining the Cornhuskers as a graduate transfer from LSU.
1. Ohio State receivers:Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson (above) combined for 73 catches, 1,452 yards and 13 touchdowns last season and there are players such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jameson Williams eager to emerge as complementary pieces.
2. UW linebackers:Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal are experienced playmakers on the inside, and Nick Herbig is a potential star at outside linebacker. Noah Burks has been a dependable player at the other outside spot, but the Badgers have recruited well at that position and Burks may get pushed by young players such as Darryl Peterson.
1. C.J. Stroud (above), QB, Ohio State: Stroud appeared in three games while serving as Justin Fields’ understudy and had a 48-yard touchdown run against Michigan State last season. He went 16 of 22 for 185 yards and two touchdowns in Ohio State’s spring game. Stroud won’t have anything handed to him, especially with the top QB in the 2022 class, Quinn Ewers, reclassifying and joining the Buckeyes late in the summer.
2. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State: One of the top prospects in the Buckeyes’ loaded 2021 class has made a solid impression since enrolling early in January. Ohio State has an embarrassment of young talent at tailback: In addition to Henderson and fellow true freshman Evan Pryor, redshirt freshman Miyan Williams is in the mix to push veteran Master Teague III for carries.
1. Durell Nchami (above), LB, Maryland: Nchami had 4½ tackles for loss while appearing in 10 games as a freshman in 2018. But injuries have plagued him the past two seasons, with an ACL tear completely wiping out 2019 and a leg injury limiting Nchami to three games last season. Nchami would give Maryland’s pass-rushing efforts a big boost if he can stay on the field.
2. Tim Baldwin Jr., RB, Indiana: The Hoosiers have to replace Stevie Scott III, who scored 30 touchdowns over the past three seasons. Baldwin may be the guy to fill those shoes after showing signs of explosiveness last season, including a 106-yard effort against Maryland.
1. Arnold Ebiketie (above), DE, Penn State: Ebiketie was a second-team American Athletic Conference choice last season after leading the Owls in tackles for loss (8½), sacks (4) and forced fumbles (3). Penn State needs all the experience it can muster while replacing three starters on the defensive line, including All-Big Ten defensive end Shaka Toney.
2. Daylen Baldwin, WR, Michigan: Baldwin joins the Wolverines after catching 27 passes for 540 yards and seven touchdowns in six games this spring at Jackson State, an FCS program. Baldwin is big (6-2, 219) with good hands and chose Michigan over Ohio State, among others.
1. Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights went 3-6 in the first year of Greg Schiano’s second stint at the school. While that may not sound great, road wins against Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland were a big deal for a program that had gone a combined 3-21 overall and 0-18 in the Big Ten the previous two seasons. Rutgers should continue to make strides under Schiano (above).
2. Minnesota: The Golden Gophers, slotted for fourth place in the West, have nine starters back on offense. Minnesota could be in the hunt for a title heading into the regular-season finale against visiting UW if quarterback Tanner Morgan can return to his 2019 form.
1. Northwestern: The Wildcats are the defending West Division champs and are picked to finish third. But they return only seven starters and could struggle on offense.
2. Indiana: Hoosiers coach Tom Allen is talking the talk after his team went 6-1 in Big Ten play last season. But how will Indiana react to having a target on its back for the first time in forever? And can star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. finally stay healthy?
1. Jim Harbaugh (above), Michigan: Harbaugh is 49-22 overall and 34-16 through six seasons at his alma mater. Those would be considered decent numbers at most places, but Harbaugh is one of the highest-paid coaches in the game, hasn’t delivered a Big Ten title or a win over archrival Ohio State and is coming off a 2-4 season.
2. Scott Frost, Nebraska: Frost was supposed to be the savior in Lincoln. Not quite. The Cornhuskers are 12-20 overall and 9-17 in Big Ten play heading into Year 4 of the Frost era and there may not be a Year 5 if Frost can’t get Nebraska to a bowl game for the first time since 2016.
1. Michigan: The Wolverines visit UW early in the season and have a difficult four-game closing stretch that includes home games against Indiana and Ohio State sandwiched around trips to Penn State and Maryland.
2. Purdue: The Boilermakers open Big Ten play with home games against Illinois and Minnesota, but their slate gets much more difficult from there with back-to-back games against Iowa and UW. Plus, Purdue gets crossover opponents Ohio State and Indiana in a span of three games to end the regular season.
1. UW: The Badgers’ crossover games are against Penn State and Michigan, but both are at home. Their road schedule — Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers and Minnesota — looks manageable on paper.
2. Ohio State: The most challenging part of the Buckeyes’ slate comes in October when they go to Indiana and host Penn State in back-to-back weeks.
1. Ohio State at Indiana, Oct. 23: The Buckeyes had to hold on for dear life to win this matchup last season in Columbus. Ohio State led 35-14 early in the third quarter before Indiana scored four touchdowns in a span of 15:22 to cut its deficit to a touchdown.
2. Penn State at UW, Sept. 4: A Top 25 matchup to open the season, and fans finally back inside Camp Randall Stadium? Sounds delightful.
1. Oregon at Ohio State, Sept. 11: The Buckeyes and Ducks were scheduled to play in Eugene last season, but that game got canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They’ll meet in Columbus in what should be a good résumé builder for the winner.
2. UW vs. Notre Dame in Chicago, Sept. 25: The first meeting between these programs since 1964 will take place at Soldier Field and — as if the matchup needed any more hoopla — former Badgers quarterback Jack Coan likely will be directing the Fighting Irish offense.
“Just because they say cancer again, I don’t feel like I’ve lost," UW's running backs coach said. "I can go fight, because I’ve got a lot to fight for.”
Mertz spent the offseason looking inward — not just at his play and what he could do differently as a quarterback — but at what was missing in 2020 and why the old way of pushing himself wasn’t effective.
The Badgers are craving a Big Ten title with a College Football Playoff berth for dessert. Of course, it’s premature to talk about the latter as a menu option until Paul Chryst and UW somehow finally finish the main course.
Camp Randall’s gates are back open this year, and Wisconsin's Saturday debut against Big Ten foe Penn State is an experience fans and local businesses have been awaiting eagerly.
"This is going to be one of the deeper teams we have, which gives us the chance to be as successful as this team can possibly be, and that's all we can ask from each team each year,'' Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said.
While many of the changes Badgers fans will see were inevitable as new technologies move into the in-stadium experience, the pandemic advanced the timeline for UW.
“I think when you come here, you acknowledge the past great linebackers that have been here and you want to continue that legacy,” Sanborn said. “We do look at ourselves as one of the Linebacker U kind of schools.”
UW hasn’t opened the season at home against a ranked opponent since 1995, a streak that will end Saturday against the No. 19 Nittany Lions at Camp Randall Stadium.
Whether you are heading down to Camp Randall or watching from the comfort of your couch, the State Journal has Badgers fans covered with a breakdown of everything they need to know as No. 12 Wisconsin kicks off football season against No. 19 Penn State on Saturday.
Get the latest postgame updates from the Wisconsin State Journal after the 12th-ranked Badgers fell to the 19th-ranked Nittany Lions 16-10 on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.
Colten Bartholomew, the State Journal’s Wisconsin Badgers football beat reporter, shares three observations from the first half of Saturday’s game against Penn State.
