There’s really no way to avoid the obvious question as we prepare for Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers this Sunday in Las Vegas: Should you bet against Patrick Mahomes?
The obvious answer is, well, no.
Especially when No. 15 is an underdog.
Since his first year as a starter in 2018, Mahomes is 11-1-1 as an underdog against the spread and 10-3 straight up.
He and the Chiefs have been underdogs in both playoff games so far this season and won them both … on the road – something Mahomes never had to face during his career.
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Heading into Super Bowl Sunday, Kansas City is again an underdog. Depending on the sportsbook, the point spread has fluctuated between 1.5-2.5, with San Francisco as the favorite. In the last few days before kickoff, it seems to have stabilized around 2 or 2.5, as it is at FanDuel.
Immediately after the NFC Championship Game last Sunday when it was official the Chiefs and 49ers would play in Super Bowl 58, the spread opened with the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites. Within an hour, however, that was bet down to 1 or 1.5, depending on the book.
Why, you ask? Simple.
You don’t be against Mahomes as an underdog.
Bettors jumped all over the Chiefs and the Mahomes underdog story when the line opened. And it just makes sense, even when, just like some of the plays Mahomes pulls off in any given game, it shouldn’t make sense.
It’s clear the 49ers are the better team. They won NFC, have never been an underdog all season long and have the best, most talented lineup across the board on both sides of the ball.
That’s why they’re favored.
But there’s a reason why nearly 70% of the public bets have been on Kansas City in the two weeks between the championship games and the Big Game: Mahomes.
Mahomes’ majestic journey really started the first time these two teams met in Super Bowl 54, which the Chiefs won, 31-20, on Feb. 3, 2020 in Miami. The quarterback led Kansas City, scoring 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points to rally to victory, giving Mahomes his first Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP award.
Since, Mahomes – and not to mention, Travis Kelce – has dominated the league.
Just in case you missed it: Sunday’s Super Bowl will be the Chiefs’ fourth in five years. They’ve won two, including last year over the Eagles. Mahomes was the MVP of that one as well.
Mahomes is the best postseason quarterback since Tom Brady, having played in 17 postseason games and winning 14 of them.
And if he keeps up this pace, Mahomes will surpass Brady. As unbelievable as that sounds.
Mahomes’ playoff stats are insane. In what equates to a full, 17-game NFL season, Mahomes, in his postseason career, has thrown for 4,802 yards and 39 touchdowns with a completing percentage of 67.4% on 626 attempts. Oh, and he’s only thrown seven interceptions.
For comparison, that’s nearly 200 yards and three touchdowns more than this year’s passing and TD leaders – Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott, respectively.
Also for comparison, in the first six postseasons of Brady’s career, No. 12 totaled 3,954 passing yards and 26 touchdown passes through 17 games to go along with three Super Bowl rings.
It doesn’t hurt that Mahomes has Kelce, a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the most prolific pass-catcher in NFL playoff history, to throw the ball to.
The Kansas City tight end broke Jerry Rice’s record against Baltimore in the AFC title game with his 11-catch performance to give Kelce 156 postseason receptions. That’s five more than Rice, who during his career played in eight conference title games and four Super Bowls, winning three of them.
Oh, and Kelce is just three postseason touchdown catches behind Rice for No. 1 all-time at 18. Two weeks ago, Kelce and Mahomes set the record for most postseason touchdown passes/catches by a quarterback/receiver duo in league history.
In terms of betting trends under Mahomes, Kansas City is 14-3 straight-up and 12-5 against the spread in the playoffs. The Chiefs also won and covered in five straight playoff games and are 2-1 ATS in the Super Bowl with Mahomes under center.
The 49ers, by the way, have been favored in every game they played this season, but are 9-10 against the spread. They failed to cover when they met the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV and are 0-2 ATS in the postseason.
This will be the fourth time this season the Chiefs are underdogs, including every game in the postseason. They’ve won – and covered – all of them.
So, back to the question: Do you bet against Mahomes?
Not me. Not with that many points.
Give me the Chiefs +2.5.
My pick: 49ers, 23-21
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Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 24-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.
