NFL Week 4 picks and predictions: Can Buffalo slow down the Miami Machine?

A 50-point victory (see: Miami over Denver).

A double-digit underdog winning outright (see: Arizona beating Dallas).

Taylor Swift (see: Travis Kelce).

Week 3 was literal madness.

The NFL is truly the gift that keeps on giving. And as we head into Week 4, there’s plenty more of where that came from.

We here at FrontPageBets also learned a few things last week. Namely, sometimes it’s best to just pick chalk. Going against the grain and picking a slew of road underdogs proved out to be folly, as the favorites went 10-6 against the spread in Week 3.

So this week, we’re reversing course and riding with the favs. Mostly.

The one game we’re picking an upset in is perhaps the biggest game of the week: Miami vs. Buffalo.

And here’s why:

The Miami Machine broke, set or came close to breaking to all sorts of NFL records Sunday in their 70-20 win over the Denver Broncos.

I mean, check this out:

• First team to ever score 10 touchdowns from scrimmage
• First team to gain at least 350 yards passing AND rushing
• Tied an NFL record for two players scoring four touchdowns each (De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert)
• First team since 1966 to score 70 points
• Second-most yards per play in NFL history (10.23)
• Second-most total yards in NFL history (726), which was 9 yards short of the NFL record, set in 1951

Now the undefeated Dolphins head to Buffalo (2-1) as a 2.5-point underdog?

NFL Week 4 odds, spreads and betting lines

Make it make sense.

How can you go against a team putting up those kinds of numbers?

Maybe it’s a trap game. Maybe there will be a letdown. Maybe the Dolphins aren’t that good.

Maybe.

But, maybe not.

Consider this: While the Bills defense is currently second in the NFL in yards allowed (253 per game) and second in points allowed (11.7), they are giving up more than 110 yards on the ground per outing, which is 13th in the NFL. The Dolphins are No. 1 in the league in rushing, averaging 188.3 yards per game. Oh, and Miami is also averaging 550.3 total yards – that’s 133.6 yards per game more than the next-best offense (LA Chargers).

Buffalo’s first three opponents are in the bottom half of the league in offense: The New York Jets (last), the Las Vegas Raiders (24th) and the Washington Commanders (23rd).

Until a team can stop the Dolphins – or at least slow them down – it’s Tua Time, all the time.

And with that, it’s onto the picks!

(All below odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)

Sunday, Oct. 1

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• When: 9:30 a.m.; ESPN+
• Spread: Jaguars -3 (-110); Falcons +3 (-110)
• Money line: Jaguars -160; Falcons +135
• Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
• The pick: Jaguars, 24-20

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

• When: 1 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Bills -2.5 (-110); Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Bills -145; Dolphins +120
• Over/Under: 54 (-110)
• The pick: Dolphins, 31-27

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears

• When: 1 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Broncos -3.5 (-110); Bears +3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Broncos -165; Bears +140
• Over/Under: 46 (-110)
• The pick: Broncos, 17-10

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

• When: 1 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Browns -3 (-110); Ravens +3 (-110)
• Money line: Browns -150; Ravens +125
• Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
• The pick: Browns, 20-16

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Bengals -2.5 (-110); Titans +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Bengals -135; Titans +115
• Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
• The pick: 27-20

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Colts -1 (-110); Rams +1 (-110)
• Money line: Colts -110; Rams -110
• Over/Under: 45.5 (-110)
• The pick: Colts, 24-21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Saints -3.5 (-110); Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Saints -175; Buccaneers +145
• Over/Under: 39.5 (-110)
• The pick: Saints, 14-10

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Eagles -8.5 (-110); Commanders +8.5 (-110)
• Money line: Eagles -400; Commanders +300
• Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
• The pick: Eagles, 31-17

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Vikings -4.5 (-110); Panthers +4.5 (-110)
• Money line: Vikings -210; Panthers +170
• Over/Under: 46.5 (-110)
• The pick: Vikings, 28-17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans

• When: 1 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Steelers -3 (-110); Texans +3 (-110)
• Money line: Steelers -150; Texans +125
• Over/Under: 42 (-110)
• The pick: Texans, 20-19

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• When: 4 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Chargers -5.5 (-110); Raiders +5.5 (-110)
• Money line: Chargers -250; Raiders +200
• Over/Under: 48.5 (-110)
• The pick: Chargers, 35-20

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys

• When: 4 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Cowboys -6.5 (-110); Patriots +6.5 (-110)
• Money line: Cowboys -275; Patriots +225
• Over/Under: 43 (-110)
• The pick: Cowboys, 24-14

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

• When: 4:25 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: 49ers -14 (-110); Cardinals +14 (-110)
• Money line: 49ers -1000; Cardinals +625
• Over/Under: 44 (-110)
• The pick: 49ers, 35-7

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets

• When: 8:20 p.m.; NBC
• Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-110); Jets +9.5 (-110)
• Money line: Chiefs -450; Jets +350
• Over/Under: 41 (-110)
• The pick: Chiefs, 24-7

Monday, Oct. 2

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants

• When: 8:15 p.m.; ABC/ESPN
• Spread: Giants -1 (-110); Seahawks +1 (-110)
• Money line: Giants -110; Seahawks -110
• Over/Under: 47.5 (-110)
• The pick: Giants, 27-25

Szvetitz season record: 18-30 ATS; 31-17 SU

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