Coaches say the biggest jump a team will make is between Week 1 and Week 2.
Here at FrontPageBets, we’re hoping that’s also the case with our weekly picks.
After starting the season 7-9 against the spread and 8-8 straight up, yours truly is ready to knock off the rust and get back on the plus side.
And as we head into the second week of the NFL season, it’s time to look at a few trends that will help pull us above .500.
Road teams went off in Week 1, tallying a 12-4 record against the spread and 10-6 straight up.
As Week 2 arrives, we’re riding that same momentum, taking 10 road teams in the 15 remaining games. In nine of those picks, we’re taking the favorite to cover, with one road underdog to win straight up.
That’s right, the upset of the week is the Washington Commanders (+3.5) to beat the Denver Broncos on the road Sunday afternoon. (Just not a big believer in that Russell Wilson-Sean Payton experiment in Mile High, while I like the gritty Washington Football Team this year with Sam Howell under center.)
A Week 1 trend we’re hoping doesn’t repeat is the success of the road dogs. While underdogs went 9-7 ATS in Week 1, road dogs went 8-2. Six of those teams won outright: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers.
We’re just looking for one this week.
Here’s another Week 1 stat to consider: Unders went 12-4. That stat actually keeps pace with 2022, which for the season 55% of the games went under the point total.
Do with that what you will.
As for me and my picks, here’s what we got …
(All odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)
Sunday, Sept. 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Chargers -3 (-110); Titans +3 (-110)
- Money line: Chargers -165; Titans +140
- Over/Under: 45 (-110)
- The pick: Chargers, 24-17
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Packers -1 (-110); Falcons +1 (-110)
- Money line: Packers -125; Falcons +105
- Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
- The pick: Packers, 17-14
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Colts -1.5 (-110); Texans +1.5 (-110)
- Money line: Colts -125; Texans +105
- Over/Under: 39.5 (-110)
- The pick: Colts, 20-18
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Lions -4.5 (-110); Seahawks +4.5 (-110)
- Money line: Lions -250; Seahawks +195
- Over/Under: 47 (-110)
- The pick: Lions, 25-20
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Bucs -2.5 (-110); Bears +2.5 (-110)
- Money line: Bucs -145; Bears +120
- Over/Under: 41.5 (-110)
- The pick: Bucs, 14-10
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Bills -9.5 (-110); Raiders +9 (-110)
- Money line: Bills -450; Raiders +333
- Over/Under: 47 (-110)
- The pick: Bills, 28-24
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-110); Jaguars +3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Chiefs -160; Jaguars +130
- Over/Under: 51 (-110)
- The pick: Chiefs, 31-27
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Bengals -3.5 (-110); Ravens +3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Bengals -175; Ravens +145
- Over/Under: 46 (-110)
- The pick: Bengals, 24-20
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals
- When: 4 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Giants -5.5 (-110); Cardinals +5.5 (-110)
- Money line: Giants -250; Cardinals +200
- Over/Under: 40 (-110)
- The pick: Giants, 22-10
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
- When: 4 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: 49ers -8.5 (-110); Rams +8.5 (-110)
- Money line: 49ers -375; Rams +290
- Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)
- The pick: 49ers, 35-17
New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys
- When: 4 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Cowboys -9 (-110); Jets +9 (-110)
- Money line: Cowboys -450; Jets +350
- Over/Under: 39.5 (-110)
- The pick: Cowboys, 20-16
Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos
- When: 4:25 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Broncos -3.5 (-110); Commanders +3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Broncos -185; Commanders +150
- Over/Under: 38 (-110)
- The pick: Commanders, 21-20
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
- When: 8:20 p.m.; NBC
- Spread: Dolphins -3 (-110); Patriots +3 (-110)
- Money line: Dolphins -140; Patriots +115
- Over/Under: 48.5 (-110)
- The pick: Dolphins, 29-25
Monday, Sept. 18
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
- When: 7:15 p.m.; ESPN
- Spread: Saints -3 (-110); Panthers +3 (-110)
- Money line: Saints -165; Panthers +140
- Over/Under: 40 (-110)
- The pick: Saints, 17-10
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- When: 8:15 p.m.; ABC
- Spread: Browns -2.5 (-110); Steelers +2.5 (-110)
- Money line: Browns -140; Steelers +115
- Over/Under: 39.5 (-110)
- The pick: Browns, 18-12
Szvetitz season record: 7-9 ATS; 8-8 SU
Gambling problem? There is help. Call 1-800-522-4700 or visit the National Council on Problem Gambling for help.
You must be over 21 to play. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700. 1-800 GAMBLER.
Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 23-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.

