It’s March. Let the madness begin.
And if the 2024 men’s college basketball regular season was any indication, this year’s NCAA Tournament could be as crazy as ever when the 64-team field gets going Thursday with first-round games.
As is tradition at FrontPageBets, we’re here to help breakdown the bracket and give our March Madness picks.
But before we get to our Final Four selections, a few things to take note of, especially when looking for upsets – straight up and against the spread.
Best March Madness upset bets? Try the 11 seed
It used to be the 12-5 matchup, but now the 11 seed is the upset darling – or at least should be when it comes to first-round matchups.
According to BetMGM, the 11th seeds actually have the best winning percentage against the spread out of any other tournament seed since 2005. That’s right, the 11 has covered 56.4% (92-71-2) of the time in the last 19 years.
And it’s not just ATS that the No. 11 seed is a good bet. In first round-matchups since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the 11th seed has pulled the upset nearly 40% of the time, going 58-94 (38.2%) straight up against the 6th seed. That’s better than the 12-5 upset, where the 12th seed is winning just 34.9% of the time straight up in the first round (99-53).
In fact, the 11th seed has the second-highest winning percentage of any double-digit seed in the tournament’s first round, just behind the 7-10 matchup, where the 10th seed is winning 39% of the games (92-59).
Which 11 seed(s) will advance past the first round this year?
Here are two: N.C. State and New Mexico.
The Wolfpack (22-14) coming out of the South Region takes on No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) in the Thursday’s first round in Pittsburgh. N.C. State won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament championship last weekend in Washington D.C., knocking off No. 1-seeded UNC.
This 2024 N.C. State team is channeling the 1983 Cinderella Wolfpack in uncanny fashion.
So here’s to them continuing to dance through the first round. (Of course, they’ll eventually lose to Kentucky in the second round, however. But that won’t take the shine off the Wolfpack’s amazing run.)
Then there’s the other 11 seed upset we’re going with: New Mexico (26-9) over No. 6 Clemson (21-11) in the West Region on Friday in Memphis.
New Mexico, much like N.C. State, made an improbable run through the Mountain West to win four games in four days for the tournament championship. The Lobos knocked off San Diego State, which is a No. 5 seed in the East this year and made a run to the national championship game last season, in the MWC final.
New Mexico and Clemson are teams on very different trajectories, which is another reason to like the Lobos here in the first-round upset.
Clemson has lost its last two games, the regular-season finale to Wake Forest, then to Boston College in the second round of the ACC Tournament.
Is the 12 seed still a good upset bet?
Simply put, yes. Betting on the 12 seed to pull off a first-round win over a No. 5 seed still has some merit and value. Especially against the spread.
According to VSiN, until last year’s tournament where the 5 seeds went 4-0 (both straight up and ATS), the 12 seed had gone 31-18-3 against the spread in first-round matchups. That’s better than 63%.
And while the No. 5 seed is 18-8 straight up since 2009, that seed is just 8-16-2 (33.3%) against the spread when it’s a 6-point favorite or more.
Something to consider this week as 5th-seeded San Diego State is a 7.5-point favorite over No. 12 UAB in the East Region’s first round, and No. 5 Gonzaga is a 6.5-point favorite over No. 5 McNeese State in the Midwest.
Wisconsin is a 5.5-point favorite over JMU in the South Region’s first round 5-12 matchup, while Saint Mary’s is also a 5.5-point favorite against Grand Canyon in the West’s 5-12.
March Madness betting: Inside the numbers
Now that we know the 11th seed is the best bet against the spread historically in the NCAA Tournament, what about the second-best?
That honor goes to the No. 7 seeds, which are 54.7% ATS since 2005.
Interestingly enough, No. 1 seeds are about even at 145-144-1 (50.2%) against the spread through the entire tournament since 2005. And 16 seeds are actually better, sitting at 69-66-3 (51.1%).
The worst seed against the spread in the last 19 years? The 14 seed at 34-49 (41%).
Final Four Cinderellas
The highest seed to win a national title is a No. 8, when Villanova did it in 1985.
The No. 5 seed has ever won a national championship, but a sixth and seventh have – Kansas 1988 as the 6th and UConn in 2014 as the 7th.
Sixty No. 1 seeds have made Final Four appearances, with 24 winning titles since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The second seed has won five titles, making 32 Final Four trips.
Take that into consideration when filling out your bracket.
2024 Final Four picks
Here’s who we got making it to the Final Four: UConn out of the East, Marquette out of the South, Purdue out of the Midwest and Arizona out of the West.
That’s right, we’re picking two No. 1 seeds, UConn and Purdue, along with a 2 seed in Arizona and a 3 seed in Marquette.
Chalky? Sure. Confident? Absolutely.
UConn will beat Arizona in one national semifinal, while Purdue will survive Marquette in the other, leaving the Huskies a chance to win back-to-back national titles against the Boilermakers, who last year became the second program in history to lose to a No.16 seed as a No. 1 seed.
And the eventual champion?
We’re calling it: Purdue.
Yes, just as Purdue was the second No. 1 seed ever to lose to a 16 … the Boilermakers will also be the second team ever to bounce back and win the national championship a year later. Just like Virginia did in 2019.
How crazy would that actually be?
Let the madness begin.
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Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 24-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.
