'Battle' zone
Who will win this year's Oscars? 'Sinners,' 'One Battle After Another' square off
Teyana Taylor in "One Battle After Another"
Michael B. Jordan (left and center) in "Sinners"
Jessie Buckley, center, in "Hamnet"
Left: Timothée Chalamet in "Marty Supreme"
Right: Stellan Skarsgard in "Sentimental Value"
Amy Madigan in "Weapons"
98TH ACADEMY AWARDS | PREDICTIONS
'Hamnet" should win. "Sinners" could win. "One Battle After Another" will win. That's how the Best Picture competition stacks up — at this point. But "Sinners" — which happens to be from the same company as "One Battle" — emerged as a sleeper, winning Best Actor and Best Ensemble prizes from The Actor Awards, the last of the big prizes before Oscar night. If that suggests a shift, we could see a surprise at the last minute. Knowing how stubborn Academy members are — and unwilling to let the actors force their hand — it could be a red herring. "One Battle" won Best Picture awards from the Critics Choice, Golden Globe and British Academy Award voters. That seems like an awful lot for "Sinners" to overcome. We say "One Battle" wins best picture.
Still, stranger things have happened. Here's how the rest of the Oscars could transpire:
Lead actress
This is the easiest category to handicap because Jessie Buckley has won everything for "Hamnet." She provided the heart to a story about William Shakespeare and his budding career. If there's a spoiler, it's Rose Byrne in "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You." She has several prizes to her name, too, but "Hamnet" can't go home empty-handed (it's just too good), and she's the one to carry the banner. Look for Buckley to win.
Lead actor
Those Actor Awards moved Michael B. Jordan out of the "also nominated" pack and into the realm of "contender." If there's a sweep for "Sinners," he has a chance. But if the prognosticators are right, it's Timothée Chalamet's for "Marty Supreme." Chalamet did everything possible to make this happen, including intense table tennis study, and surely he deserves to win. He didn't win last year for "A Complete Unknown" and should have voter regret working in his favor.
Likely to win: Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme."
Spoiler: Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners."
Supporting actress
This category has extremely strong contenders. Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another," seemed like the front-runner, but the prizes have been split among her, Amy Madigan, "Weapons," and Wunmi Mosaku, "Sinners."
When Madigan won the Actor Award, you could sense there's a desire to reward someone who has been in the business for some time. She's the only veteran in the bunch — remember "Field of Dreams," "Gone Baby Gone" and "Places in the Heart"? — and that could work in her favor. Against her? "Weapons" is a horror film, and that doesn't sit well with those who think a prestige picture should win. Taylor and Mosaku could be beneficiaries of sweeps for their films. But there's a gut feeling that this is now one envelope away from being in Madigan's hands. Likely to win: Amy Madigan, "Weapons." Spoiler: Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another."
Supporting actor
This is the toughest category of all.
Past winners (Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro) and veterans (Delroy Lindo, Stellan Skarsgard) compete with a hot young actor (Jacob Elordi). So far, it's "something for everyone" with early contests. But it could come down to Penn, "One Battle After Another," and Skarsgard, "Sentimental Value." Because Penn already has two Oscars, Skarsgard could be a stronger choice. But Penn's performance is so intense, varied and essential to his film, it's impossible to say he's out of the mix.
Likely to win: Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another," or Stellan Skarsgard, "Sentimental Value."
Spoiler: Delroy Lindo, "Sinners."
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson is destined to win this, largely because he has plenty of nominations and no wins. Plus, he's one of the new elite, and his "One Battle After Another" is one of his strongest films.
Animated film
"KPop Demon Hunters."
International film
It's a split between "Sentimental Value" and "The Secret Agent." Either could win.
Original song
"Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters."
Other categories
"Frankenstein" should do well in the craft categories; "Avatar: Fire and Ash" and "F1" will win in technical categories; and "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" should split the writing prizes.
When to watch
Catch the Oscars Sunday on ABC and Hulu. Conan O'Brien returns as host.
And the nominees are …
Best picture:"Bugonia," "F1," "Frankenstein," "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "The Secret Agent," "Sentimental Value," "Sinners," "Train Dreams."
Lead actress: Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"; Rose Byrne, "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"; Renate Reinsve, "Sentimental Value"; Emma Stone, "Bugonia"; Kate Hudson, "Song Sung Blue."
Lead actor: Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "One Battle After Another"; Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"; Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"; Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent."
Supporting actress: Elle Fanning, "Sentimental Value"; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, "Sentimental Value"; Amy Madigan, "Weapons"; Wunmi Mosaku, "Sinners"; Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another."
Supporting actor: Jacob Elordi, "Frankenstein"; Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"; Stellan Skarsgard, "Sentimental Value"; Benicio del Toro, "One Battle After Another"; Delroy Lindo, "Sinners."
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, "One Battle After Another"; Ryan Coogler, "Sinners"; Chloé Zhao, "Hamnet"; Josh Safdie, "Marty Supreme"; Joachim Trier, "Sentimental Value."
Original song:"Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters," "Train Dreams" from "Train Dreams," "Dear Me" from "Diane Warren: Relentless," "I Lied To You" from "Sinners," "Sweet Dreams Of Joy" from "Viva Verdi!"
Original score:"Bugonia," Jerskin Fendrix; "Frankenstein," Alexandre Desplat; "Hamnet," Max Richter; "One Battle After Another," Jonny Greenwood; "Sinners," Ludwig Göransson.
Animated film: "Arco," "Elio," "KPop Demon Hunters," "Little Amélie or the Character of Rain," "Zootopia 2."
International film:"The Secret Agent," Brazil; "It Was Just an Accident," France; "Sentimental Value," Norway; "Sirat," Spain; "The Voice of Hind Rajab," Tunisia.
Documentary feature:"The Perfect Neighbor," "The Alabama Solution," "Come See Me in the Good Light," "Cutting Through Rocks," "Mr. Nobody Against Putin."
Casting: "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "The Secret Agent," "Sinners."
Best sound:"F1," "Frankenstein," "One Battle after Another," "Sinners," "Sirat."
Cinematography:"Frankenstein," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "Sinners," "Train Dreams."
Original screenplay:"Blue Moon," Robert Kaplow; "It Was Just an Accident," Jafar Panahi, with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian; "Marty Supreme," Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie; "Sentimental Value," Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier; "Sinners," Ryan Coogler.
Adapted screenplay:"Bugonia," Will Tracy; "Frankenstein," Guillermo del Toro; "Hamnet," Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell; "One Battle After Another," Paul Thomas Anderson; "Train Dreams," Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar.
Live action short film:"Butcher's Stain," "A Friend of Dorothy," "Jane Austen's Period Drama," "The Singers," "Two People Exchanging Saliva."
Animated short film:"Butterfly," "Forevergreen," "The Girl Who Cried Pearls," "Retirement Plan," "The Three Sisters."
Documentary short film: "All the Empty Rooms," "Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud," "Children No More: Were and Are Gone," "The Devil Is Busy," "Perfectly a Strangeness."
Visual eff ects: "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "F1," "Jurassic World Rebirth," "The Lost Bus," "Sinners."
Production design:"Frankenstein," "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "Sinners."
Film editing:"F1," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "Sentimental Value," "Sinners."
Makeup and hairstyling:"Frankenstein," "Kokuho," "Sinners," "The Smashing Machine," "The Ugly Stepsister."
Costume design: "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Frankenstein," "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "Sinners."
— Associated Press
